Colorado can be contrary. While other states’ COVID-19 cases were going through the roof, ours were falling. Now with most of the rest of the country seeing declining cases, Colorado’s COVID cases are rising.
The national average of new daily cases has fallen by more than 50 percent compared to mid-September. But here in Colorado, cases are climbing, reaching their highest point since mid-January. People don’t seem to be paying attention, which might well be to our detriment.
As of Wednesday morning, Oct. 27, 1,187 Coloradans were hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19 cases, the most since Christmas Eve. Ninety-three percent of intensive care (ICU) beds have been in use over the past week. The state has 1,634 ICU beds and only 119 ICU beds are still available statewide.
In a press conference with Governor Jared Polis on Wednesday, Colorado’s state health officials confirmed that hospital capacity is stressed beyond any previous point in the pandemic that began in March 2020. This is a metric that state public leadership, and the state’s epidemiologist Rachel Herlihy, have repeatedly said would drive its future public health orders. But now that that the state has reached that point, there are as yet no clear directives that might ensure the state’s hospital bed capacity.
To be clear, hospitalizations for COVID are lower now than they were in December 2020. But there are still far fewer beds available now than at any other point in the pandemic. Why? Well, some of those beds are being used for other types of hospitalizations– from trauma and long-delayed surgeries to other serious illnesses.
The situation appears to be getting worse, not better. During last winter’s peak, “we still had 1,800 additional beds available,” said the state’s COVID-19 incident commander the Scott Bookman. “Today, we’re below that peak and only have an average of 959 (hospital beds left). It’s about 90 percent occupancy in both medical-surgical and intensive care beds.” he added that we’re “very concerned at this point about what we’re seeing in our hospitals.”
Here in Chaffee County, the “Chaffee’s Got Heart” Campaign was put in place months ago – with much community support. Along with getting vaccinated, this might be a good time to remember those six simple steps to help all residents stay healthy.
Herlihy said that over the past week, nearly 8.5 percent of the state’s COVID-19 tests have come up positive on average, according to state data, the highest level since mid-December (The state’s goal has been to stay below 5.0 average positivity to contain spread). She added that the positivity rate can be a “leading indicator,” meaning it may suggest an increase in cases over at least the next week, which will, in turn, mean more hospitalizations within one to two weeks after that.
Concern aside, the state has been mum about whether it would institute any public health orders. For the past several months, Polis has said that the state would not institute any public health orders unless hospital capacity was threatened. While public health leaders have made vague statements that they are considering a “potential policy response” to blunt the surge, perhaps even a return to facemask mandates, but have made no moves.
Bookman said during the Wednesday press conference that the state supports local moves: “local control and local orders are a key way” to control the pandemic because the situation varies across different geographic areas of the state.”Right now, we continue to evaluate hospital capacity, we continue to evaluate the trajectory of the pandemic, but most importantly we continue to work with our local partners who have the best understanding of what’s happening and have the best way to mitigate the spread of the disease.”
Health experts say it’s unclear why Colorado’s COVID-19 situation is getting worse in direct contradiction to the rest of the country. Herlihy said she and other state officials are looking for those answers.
Among the worst counties for new cases: El Paso and Jefferson counties. In fact, El Paso County had more cases than 33 other Colorado counties combined. At a Wednesday evening meeting in Buena Vista for the new Boys & Girls Clubs of Chaffee County, attended by around 70 people, there were only two attendees wearing face masks (both fully vaccinated).
The Colorado School of Public Health (SPH) has a modeling team working on state projections. The state may still be three to four weeks away from the peak of its current surge, according to Jon Samet, the dean of the SPH and a member of the modeling team. This could make what we all do now and in the coming weeks, very important.
Recent Comments