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While large swaths of American society may want to wish it away,  the COVID-19 pandemic is not yet in the rearview mirror. What the country, this state, and the Central Colorado Rockies counties do for the next eight weeks might determine what our summer, our fall, and this year turn out to be. The balancing act: vaccinations versus virus cases.

Many states and a certain element of the population continue to discount the severity of the virus and are tossing out the public health orders that have brought it under control, but not defeated it. Advocates for businesses, in particular, are pushing to move to operations with no restrictions.  COVID-19 cases have plateaued at levels not considered safe by public health professionals.

Balancing act. Photo courtesy of Parade

But for the past two weeks, COVID-19 cases have been rising in 31 states, including in Colorado. Now hospitalizations are rising, raising the specter of a fourth wave.

Medical professionals say the rapid spread includes several strains of COVID variants that are far more dangerous, including the B.1.1.7 variant strain. That strain isn’t just more contagious, health experts say. It appears to be deadlier than the original virus.

Here in the U.S. more than 30 million people have contracted the virus since January of last year. More than 550,000 Americans have died since the pandemic was identified in March 2020. Although people tend to forget this: at least 1,000 people a day are still dying from COVID.

With cases steadily rising, the Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Dr. Rochelle Walensky says she’s afraid of what will happen next. There are already 11 states, many in the northeast, that appear on the verge of outbreaks. Even Colorado, which is making reopening noises, is considered nationally in the orange high-risk category, with 1,204 average daily cases, and 21 cases per 100,000 population.

While she couched her concern in the midst of the good news of rising vaccination rates, growing access to vaccines, the opportunities that lie ahead to finally connect with family and friends once vaccinated, and the progress that has been made, her tone was serious.

“What we’ve seen over the last week or so is a steady rise of cases,” said Walensky on Monday. “I know that travel is up, and I just worry that we will see the surges that we saw over the summer and over the winter again.”
This National Public Radio special report on the rising COVID cases tracks state by state in several different ways: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/09/01/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s .
Here’s where Colorado sits as of yesterday  on COVID cases:

Average new cases/day/3 weeks ago            1,050
Average new cases/day/two weeks ago        1,029
Average new cases/day/one week ago             935
Average new cases this week                          1,204
Cases since Jan 2020                                     459,361
Colorado deaths since Jan 2020                      6,092

COVID-19 microscopic public domain image from NIAID.nih.gov.

The rise in cases has been tracked to two other factors: those states raising COVID-19 public health orders (in effect ‘throwing the doors open”) plus the rapid rise in spring break travel, with young people fueling the surge.

Much has been made of Walensky’s comment that she was worried about a fourth wave of the virus, calling it a possibility of “impending doom.” But the CDC and public health officials call any major easing of public health protocols at this critical stage “Playing with Fire.”

The fact is, that while the public is weary of the virus, the virus doesn’t care; it continues to evolve into more dangerous strains.  While the number of COVID-19 vaccinations is growing every day nationally (and in this state), at this point the nation is on a public health teeter-totter; a desperate balancing act to get enough shots in arms before the variant mutations get worse and spread.

Chaffee County has moved to Level Blue: Caution on the Colorado COVID dial in the past few weeks. But just last weekend, the Colorado Dept. of Public Health and Environment conducted an urgent vaccine clinic due to the emergence of the South African variant in the county, the first in the state.

But by mid-April, Colorado Governor Jared Polis has indicated he is considering that the state will turn the public health order responsibility back to the counties. This could leave local authorities to decide, and attempt to enforce local public health protocols. The hard work and sacrifice of thousands of Chaffee County residents and businesses hangs in the balance.