The news over the past several days that not one, but two COVID-19 vaccines have reached the final stages of testing is good news. Both the Pfizer vaccine and a new vaccine by Moderna have completed clinical trials that show them to be more effective than even the most hopeful predictions.
The good news comes none-too-soon, riding a grim week of news. Only one week ago the U.S. passed 10 million COVID-19 cases. Just seven days later, with the coronavirus surging across the country, we passed the 11 million mark; with one million new infections, hospitalizations climbing by the hour, and rising deaths sure to follow in a week or two.
“The cavalry is coming,” said the National Center for Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci, late last week on ABC’s “Good Morning America.” He added that those disease experts hope that shots of the Pfizer vaccine will be available to all Americans in April, May, and June.
Image courtesy of the BBC
The pressure is on to get the vaccine effort right. “We were hoping for vaccines that would be 50 to 60 percent effective. Pfizer boosted our hopes last week, saying early data suggests its vaccine is 90 percent effective,” said Fauci. … “we project by the end of December there will be individual doses available for those in the extreme high-risk categories.”
“A 90 percent effective rate is astonishing because we didn’t even know if this would work at all. Period. No one has made a licensed vaccine for anyone,” said Carl Zimmer, a science writer and author of the “Matter” column for The New York Times in a podcast last week. “The FDA said 50 percent efficacy was good! This puts it in the ballpark with some of the most potent vaccines that we have.”
The Pfizer test was conducted on 34,000 people: half got the vaccine of two doses over a three-week timeframe, and the other half got a placebo. Then, they waited for people in the trials to get COVID. When they got sick, only 94 people of the 34,000 got sick; meaning the vaccine is more than 90 percent effective.
“While 94 doesn’t seem like a lot – it is actually a pretty good number,” said Zimmer. “In the clinical world, they checked in – and suddenly this is really important – this is really good.”
The news today that biotechnology firm Moderna has completed an experimental vaccine trial that is 94.5 percent effective adds hope for the future. Unlike the announcement from Pfizer about their COVID-19 vaccine, the Moderna vaccine is now expected to remain stable at standard refrigerator temperatures of 2° to 8°C (36° to 46°F) for 30 days, up from the previous estimate of seven days.
CNN reported this morning that Moderna received its results on Sunday while on a call with the Data Safety and Monitoring Board, which has been overseeing their clinical data.
“It’s extremely good news. If you look at the data, the numbers speak for themselves,” said Fauci in a response gathered by the Washington Post. “I describe myself as a realist, but I’m fundamentally a cautious optimist. I felt we’d likely get something less than this. … I said certainly a 90-plus-percent effective vaccine is possible, but I wasn’t counting on it.”
Public health officials across the country gear up for the biggest vaccination effort in U.S. history
With this latest vaccine news, the nation could potentially have at least two vaccines to help protect a population growing increasingly frustrated, worried, and exhausted from what has already been a nine-month saga.
The challenge: this is a monumental undertaking that must distribute hundreds of millions of doses, prioritize who’s first in line and ensure that people who get the initial shot return for the necessary second one.
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is already conducting what could be described as “war gaming” the push, which could begin as early as next month, if the first vaccines get authorized for emergency use and immediately deployed to high-risk groups, such as health care workers.
While it’s not quite on the same level as Moderna, the biggest complication with the Pfizer vaccine is that it has to be stored at ultracold temperatures; needing deep freezers to maintain their viability, which presents a problem for mass distribution. While those might be more accessible in metropolitan areas, they present a distribution challenge for large swaths of rural America.
Health experts say the prospects for either of the vaccines being available in Colorado anytime sooner than next year are unclear. In the meantime, the virus is raging, including a giant surge in cases across the state of Colorado.
“One in every 145 Coloradoans has COVID,” says Colorado State Epidemiologist Dr. Rachel Herlihy in public health television messaging this week. “If you interact with 20 people per day, this means that in a week you will come in contact with someone who has COVID-19. Please, we’re asking, during November, only interact with people from your household, and wear a facemask.”
States already have immunization registries, which will be used for COVID-19, and these will be critically important for this two-shot vaccine protection. Providers such as pharmacies and doctors’ offices will also need to be able to look up records, so people do not have to return to the same place for their second shot. More than one vaccine could also become available, and doses cannot be mixed and matched.
Because record-keeping in such a massive national immunization effort will be critical, providers will have to report vaccination information daily, which will be an adjustment for those that typically enter data weekly or every couple of weeks, say federal officials.
Vaccine distribution plans will be critical to COVID-19 prevention. Image courtesy of Consumer Reports
“We hear a vaccine is coming…..we are looking at the Pfizer product which will most likely finish first. It’s an ultracold supply chain and two-dose vaccine,” said Chaffee County Public Health Director Andrea Carlstrom last week. “The closest distribution points they list are Gunnison, Pueblo, Colorado Springs, and Summit – I emailed the coordinator of the distribution program to say ‘Hey we are a donut hole here in the state!'”
“Our greater vaccination plan is we are looking at purchasing some of these cold supply chain coolers that can store the vaccine, and we are in conversation with the first phase partners who will be first responders, health care workers, and most vulnerable,” added Carlstrom. “We are NOT taking a waiting list for this vaccine. We don’t have the capacity to do that. We will be advertising what our plan will look like when we get more information.”
What is at stake as we all wait in this vaccine is life — and death.
“The decisions we make right now will decide who lives and who dies this winter,” concludes Zimmer. “Yes, we have promising vaccine trials and a new administration, but it doesn’t take over for 65 days and we don’t yet know if emergency use will be given.”
“My own mother called and said ‘I relieve you from all guilt not to come home for Thanksgiving,” added Zimmer.” I also understand grandparents who have been deprived of grandchildren for months. But at this moment we are in a worse place now than we were in the spring.”
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